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Seasonality is a seasonal fluctuation or cycle forming a trend or pattern. The best-known seasonal pattern is that of the outdoor temperature. Markets also demonstrate seasonal tendencies or trends i.e., the year-end rally in the stock market or low heating oil prices during the summer. There are a number of reasons for these seasonal patterns, including:- the weather, harvest periods, the heating season, investor sentiment during certain times of the year, yearly or quarterly financial reporting of companies or investment funds, the tax year

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Flat price trading focuses on the rise and fall in the absolute price level of a particular futures contract. In contrast, spread trading is concerned with the relative prices of two or more contracts. Spread trading has always figured large in the commodities futures marketplace. Large commercial firms use spreads in a variety of ways. These include:- moving their hedges from one contract month to another, trading spreads to offset storage and financing costs associated with their underlying inventory and selecting advantageous delivery locations. Large speculators also use spreads to both reduce both overall portfolio volatility as well as an independent profit source.

Calendar spreads or inter-delivery spreads can be divided into bull spreads and bear spreads. A bull spread is long the nearby contract and short the deferred contract. The nearby contract is expected to be stronger than the deferred. If absolute price levels are rising, the nearby is expected to rise more in price than the deferred, and if absolute price levels are declining, the nearby is expected to decline less than the deferred. The bear spread is the reverse of the bull spread and is short the nearby and long the deferred and the expectation is that the deferred contract will be stronger than the nearby contract.

A butterfly spread, or ‘fly’, can be viewed as two calendar spreads combined. In all the examples on this website, it is the simultaneous purchase and sale of three contracts, with the middle leg having two contracts, whilst each outside leg has only one. The butterfly spread is typically a low volatility spread due to its structure (combining a bull spread and bear spread).

Another type of calendar spread is the intercrop spread, which entails taking a long position in one crop year and a short position in another crop year. As an example, the crop year for soybeans begins with the September contract and ends with the August contract. Margins associated with intercrop spreads are typically higher due to the increased volatility associated with such spreads. All intra-arket spreads are graphed and quoted as the unit difference between the two contracts.

Inter-commodity spreads are spreads between two commodities, for example a Long February Live Cattle and Short February Lean Hogs spread. They are essentially spreads between two different but related futures contracts. Wheat versus corn,  soybeans versus corn,  gold versus silver, Bunds veruss US 10 year Notes are all examples  of inter-commodity spreads. In the case of wheat versus corn, they are both animal feeds and thus can be substituted for each other. This will limit any price discount of wheat to corn. Inter-commodity spreads have a fundamental relationship with each other, so a Long position in orange juice versus cotton, although technically an inter-commodity spread is regarded as two outright positions rather than an inter-commodity spread per se. As a result of this inherent fundamental relationship true inter-commodity spreads usually qualify for reduced exchange margins.

Another inter-commodity spread is the commodity product spread, which is the spread between a commodity and its products. This is exemplified by the energy Crack spreads and the agricultural Crush spread. The energy crack spread is the spread between Crude oil and its derivative products, namely Heating oil and Gasoline. The Crush spread is the spread between soybeans and its derivative products namely Soybean meal and Soybean oil. A soybean crusher makes a profit from the difference between the cost of buying the beans and the price derived from the products. This difference is commonly called the Crush margin The spread created by buying soybean futures and simultaneously selling soymeal and soybean oil futures against it is called the Crush spread. The reverse crush spread is when one buys the soymeal and soybean oil contracts and sells the soybean futures contract.

A Bull Futures Spread is when the trader is long the near month and short the deferred month in the same market. It is important to note that the near months for futures contracts typically move farther and faster than the back months. Since the front months tend to outperform the deferred months, a trader who is bullish would buy the near month, sell the deferred month, and would like for the near month to move faster and farther than the deferred month. The spread typically goes in your favor when prices are rising.

A Bear Futures Spread is when the trader is short the near month and long the deferred month. This is the opposite of the Bull Futures Spread. This spread typically goes in your favor when prices are declining.

When pricing spreads, you always take the front month and subtract the deferred month. If the front month is trading lower than the deferred,  the spread will be quoted as a negative number. If the front month is trading higher than the deferred month, the spread will be quoted as a positive number. The tick values are the same for spreads as they are for their individual contracts.

A market is in Contango when the front months cost less than the deferred months. This is also known as a “normal” market. If a bushel of corn in May costs 600 and a bushel of corn in July is 610, that market is in Contango. In normal markets, the deferred month should cost a little more than the front month due to the cost of carry, which is made up of storage costs, insurance on stored commodity, and interest rates payments for the capital needed to own and store the commodity.

When markets are in Backwardation, the near months are trading higher than the deferred months. Markets in Backwardation are also called “inverted” markets. They are the opposite of Contango or “normal” markets. Backwardation typically occurs during bull markets. When there is a substantial supply issue or increase in demand, the front months of a commodity will start to go up faster than the back months. The front months are more sensitive to changes in supply and demand because the front months are the commodity months that are coming to the market for delivery. If there are supply decreases or demand increases, it is easier for the market to account for these in the deferred months, especially in the next crop year, also known as the “new crop”.

The Soybean Crush spread is synthetically generated using Soybean, Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal futures prices; the result of the soybean crush calculation is then rounded to the nearest quarter of a cent. This is not a tradable futures contract. The soybean crush is the margin of profit generated by crushing soybeans into soy products and is expressed in terms of cents/bushel.  We use the following industry standard for calculating the crush margin (11 SM + 9 BO)/10 S):

(SM*0.022 + BO*0.11) – S = Crush Margin

where SM is the price of Soymeal in US$/ton,
where BO is the price of Soyoil in cents/pound, and
where S is the price of Soybeans in US$/bushel.

Thus, Crush Margin is quoted in dollars and cents per bushel — the value added to a bushel of soybeans by crushing into its products.

Commercials typically replicate the Crush Spread by using 11 Soymeal contracts and 9 Soybean Oil contracts against 10 Soybean contracts. 

The Crack Spread measures the value added to a barrel of crude oil by cracking it into its various refined products, primarily gasoline and heating oil.